Wednesday, June 26, 2013

OBAMA'S CLIMATE SPEECH AIDS NATIONAL SECURITY

Do you believe Climate Change is a national security threat? (Feel free to comment)


  
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The CIA has closed down its Center on Climate Change and National Security. This office was created in 2009 and served as the conduit for the CIA to investigate how climate change is a national security threat. CIA spokesman Todd Ebitz said the agency’s work on climate change has been transferred to a new office.

Ebitz said during an interview with The Hill, “The CIA for several years has studied the national security implications of climate change. As part of a broader realignment of analytic resources, this work continues to be performed by a dedicated team in a new office that looks at economic and energy matters affecting America’s national security. The mission and the resources devoted to it remain essentially unchanged.”

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After President Obama's June 25th speech at Georgetown University announcing a historic policy-shift toward climate change, I felt slightly relieved. And, apparently, so did the Pentagon's 
Joint Chiefs of Staff- they declared it a national security threat years ago.

In fact, the CIA explored the nexus between climate change and America's national security. Surprisingly, the GOP criticized this activity by the CIA. Mitt Romney, during the Republican National Convention, actually mocked the notion of rising oceans and climate change. I wrote an article shortly afterwards, claiming that the Joint Chiefs of Staff disagree with Romney's opinion about climate change. The Joint Chiefs believe climate change is, indeed, a national security threat of global proportions and the CIA opened a Center on Climate Change and National Security in 2009. The CIA began exploring the “national security impact of phenomena such as desertification, rising sea levels, population shifts and heightened competition for natural resources.”

Greenwire, which first reported the story, said that the CIA's center “received little internal support” after Leon Panetta stepped down as CIA director to become Defense Secretary in 2011. Has internal support for such a center been reinvigorated by President Obama's speech at Georgetown University? I hope so.

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One of the best resources I came across that links climate change as a verifiable threat to America's national security is a study by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, entitled, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security". It was completed in October 2003. The study is eye-opening and should be read by those in the CIA who do not give "internal support" to this novel national security threat.

The study should be read by those in the GOP who believe climate change is a hoax. Schwartz and Randall interviewed top climate scientists and found that within a decade the evidence of an imminent abrupt climate shift may become clear and reliable. It has, thus making President Obama's June 25th Georgetown University speech credible, significant and historical. Why? Simply because the United States must take urgent action to prevent and mitigate the most significant impacts of climate change, which are occurring globally...as we speak.

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Diplomatic action is needed to minimize the likelihood of conflict in the most impacted areas, especially in the Caribbean (America's southern flank) and Asia. Massive population movements are expected and learning how to manage refugee populations and the border tensions they create is critical.

They recommend that the U.S. establish new forms of security agreements dealing specifically with energy, food and water resources. In short, while America will be relatively better off and with more adaptive capacity, it will find itself in a world where even its reliable European allies are struggling with large numbers of refugees washing up on its shores. 

Climate change has created a serious crisis over food and water availability throughout Asia, resulting in political, social, economic and environmental disruption. These resultant Asian conflicts will be endemic features of life and provide al Qaeda with recruitment opportunities.

I hope the Intelligence Community (IC) and GOP leadership  listens to President Obama's warning and joins him in his initiative to reduce coal emissions and to create a robust clean energy future. He's enabling the U.S. to jump on the bandwagon! Already, the energy crisis and climate change have generated global demands for alternative non-fossil fuel sources. This has led to a rapid increase of investments in production of liquid biofuels based on agricultural feed stocks such as sugar cane.

Take Africa as an example. Most African governments see biofuels as a potential for increasing agricultural productivity and export incomes and thus strengthening their national economies, improving energy balances and rural employment. This surge for African biofuels has opened space for private investors — both domestic and external — to multiply and network "independently" of the state. The biofuel expansion is generating new economic alliances and production relations, resulting in new forms of inclusions and exclusions within the rural population.  
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I hope those U.S. policy makers who don’t believe climate change is a growing national security threat will change their archaic views. They are prohibiting the U.S. from becoming a world leader in research and development for alternative non-fossil fuel sources. That's why I bring up Africa. We could be the paramount figure in preventing African governments from becoming unstable, because they could increase agricultural productivity and export incomes, buttress their national economies, and enhance energy balances and rural employment. Oh, by the way, a sidebar is needed: the move would greatly diminish al Qaeda's influence.

Hopefully, the CIA’s discarded Center on Climate Change and National Security is alive and operationally-well in whatever area of the government it emigrated to. I say, reinstate it back into the CIA, for in each region of the world impacted by climate change, coordinated action is needed; I'm talking about government- Intelligence Community (IC)- private investor networking. Besides being a great, deep cover opportunity for the CIA, the agency could also battle  climate change, keep faltering governments more stable, stifle terrorist recruitment, and help in reducing green house gas emissions.

The development of African biofuels is but one example where the CIA (and entire IC), government, and private investors could work to stabilize faltering governments exposed to the devastating effects of climate change. This coordinated approach could also be applied to take drastic measures to have reliable sources of water for drinking, sanitation, food production and manufacturing. 

I hope the "flat-earthers" who deny the science of climate change fail in their attempts to portray President Obama's Georgetown University speech as a trivial...as they will, no doubt. In reality, I consider them a national security threat, for new biofuel, wind, geothermal, solar, and hydro energy development would generate not only new power sources, but new economic alliances and production relations as well in countries with weakening governments.

For the sake of America's national security...I hope we do so.

Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

POLL- WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN TO NSA LEAKER SNOWDEN?

What should happen to NSA leaker Edward Snowden? Feel free to make comment after voting.



  
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Monday, June 24, 2013

NEW ALQAEDA "X'S" CHANCES FOR MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN GLOBAL SUMMIT

What do you believe about Muslims living in N.America and Europe? (Multiple answers required and comments appreciated).













  
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NOTE: This post has been updated. Please go to "RADICAL ISLAM BRUTAL TOWARDS FORGIVING CHRISTIANS" for new version.


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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

TOP OSINT RESOURCE- INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP

The International Crisis Group is one of the top OSINT resources I've run into. I refer to it often. The group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organizsation committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflicts. It has many prominent Western diplomats and politicians on board from the U.S. and roughly 50 other countries, including America's NATO allies. Here's some fact about them:

•1995, the year Crisis Group was founded
•US$15.5 million, annual budget. Roughly half comes from Western governments. 
•Some 130 permanent staff worldwide, from 46 nationalities speaking 53 languages

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•Over 60 conflict and potential conflict situations covered
•Around 90 reports and briefings published annually
•Over 80 issues of the monthly CrisisWatch bulletin published since 2003
•Over 860 full-length reports and briefings published since 1995
•Over 25,000 targeted recipients of reports
•Over 140,000 people subscribing online to receive reports
•Over 2.4 million website visits annually
•Over 14,000 media mentions annually
•Over 200 opinion pieces published annually

Robert Morton, M.Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean." The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the SECURE CONTACT FORM

Friday, June 14, 2013

"WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN" COVERS GOVT. LEAKS, WHISTLEBLOWERS

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What should happen to NSA leaker Edward Snowden? Feel free to make comment after voting.



  
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The recent hoopla over the FBI/NSA analysis of cell phone patterns reminded me of an excellent resource regarding the dilemma of how we must protect ourselves from harm's way versus the need to protect our privacy and civil liberties. Edward Snowden is praised by some, cursed by others. Where's the fine line drawn between a patriotic whistleblower and a treasonous leaker of classified information?
I attempted to find this particular resource, which also covers  secret intelligence leaks through Border's Books and Amazon books, but did not succeed. However, it is such a great resource I persisted and finally ferreted it out online for you. You may download it at no charge. The book is entitled, "Who Watches the Watchmen?" by Gary Ross. Enjoy!

According to the Secrecy News, this new book-length study of leaks of classified information published by the Defense Intelligence Agency's National Intelligence University contends that "the tension between maintaining national security secrets and the public right to know cannot be 'solved', but can be better understood and more intelligently managed."

"Who Watches the Watchmen?" by Gary Ross explores the phenomenon of leaks from multiple angles, including their history, their prevalence and their consequences. Most interestingly, he considers the diverse motivations of leakers and of the reporters who solicit, receive and publish their disclosures. Some of these he finds defensible, and others not. In the end, he advises that government officials should engage members of the media in a constructive dialog in order to avert the worst consequences of leaks.

"Proactively engaging with the media to examine the costs and benefits associated with unauthorized disclosures represents the greatest potential for reducing the perceived harm to national security," Mr. Ross wrote.

By contrast, "Maintaining the status quo or attempting to legislate a solution both have proven to be ineffective methods for resolving the dilemma. True change can only occur if the Executive Branch is willing to invest the time and resources necessary to implement an approach focused on engagement with the media."

This is a congenial conclusion, which implies that punitive new legislation can be avoided and that remaining differences between reporters and government officials can be fruitfully discussed. But it arguably misapprehends the harsh new policy landscape in the wake of the WikiLeaks episode (which is also discussed in the book). The status quo has been transformed in response to WikiLeaks in two ways that are unfavorable to leakers, justified or unjustified.


First, the threat of unauthorized disclosures has been elevated in the view of government officials to one of "the most menacing foreign intelligence threats in the next two to three years." During his testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee, DNI James R. Clapper said that unauthorized disclosures of classified information had "caused significant damage to US interests." Further, he said, "We assess that trusted insiders using their access for malicious intent represent one of today's primary threats to US classified networks." Engagement with the media" will not be the main response to such threats.

And second, WikiLeaks, which targeted legitimate and illegitimate secrets with equal vigor, has inspired and accelerated the development of new forensic tools and methods to identify the sources of unauthorized disclosures. Internal surveillance of classified networks is set to grow, with new mechanisms for tracking and auditing online activity by government employees. Whatever else might be true, the status quo of a few years ago has been left behind.

A good example is this account from his book. It describes "Operation BROADSIDE", where during the 1960s and 1970s, a clandestine listening post inside the U.S. embassy in Moscow intercepted calls made from the limousines of Soviet Politburo members. Intelligence obtained from these intercepts was classified with the code name GAMMA GUPY.346.

Unfortunately, on September 16,1971, columnist Jack Anderson published an article in the Washington Post disclosing the capabilities of the program. Beyond making a veiled reference to the operation or implying a capability, Anderson entitled his article “CIA Eavesdrops on Kremlin Chiefs.” After the disclosure, the Soviets began encrypting these communications.

Akin to journalist Novak willingly taking part in the outing of CIA NOC agent Valerie Plame, journalist Anderson's selfish hunger for a good story harmed America.

Further reading:
Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

WHERE WILL AL QAEDA STRIKE NEXT?

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A year ago I received an unnerving post from the Dept. of Homeland Security. According to the Wall Street Journal, "Al Qaeda is expected to shift strategy under new leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, placing a higher priority on attacking the U.S. and Western targets overseas, where plots are easier to execute than on the U.S. homeland." This quote was from U.S. officials during an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

Zawahiri plans to better coordinate the goals of Al Qaeda's leaders in Pakistan and affiliates, particularly in Yemen, which are increasingly becoming the group's front line operators. The modus operandi of Al Qaeda's branch in Yemen is to conduct any type of attack possible, whether or not it will have a spectacular result, U.S. officials told the Journal.

As a result, the U.S. may have to alter its approach to counterterrorism operations, especially if Al Qaeda's Yemen and North African branches try to seek out U.S. or other Western targets in Europe or Africa. Such attacks would be reminiscent of Al Qaeda's first U.S. attack- the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania for which Zawahiri was indicted for.


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The Obama administration said that it still considers Al Qaeda and its acolytes to be the "pre-eminent security threat to the United States" even after former Al Qaeda leader bin Laden's killing. But for the U.S. and European allies, it means counterterrorism officials must track a more dispersed threat. It isn't clear how aggressive the Egyptian doctor Zawahiri, age 60+, will be in executing his strategy in the near term. He maintains a low profile since taking over the terrorist group. 

He did, however, release a video that eulogized bin Laden and vowed revenge for the Al Qaeda leader's death. It wasn't until months after bin Laden's death that Al Qaeda announced Zawahiri as its new leader, and he hasn't been heard from publicly since. I read lots of threatening responses to the killing of Osama bin Laden on terrorist Websites, including the video (below) by Omar Bakri. One Internet statement released by Al Qaeda warned that "soon, with God's help, we pray that their happiness turns into sorrow, and may their blood mix with their tears." Al Qaeda militants "will continue to plan and plot without any fatigue, boredom, despair, surrender or indifference:" 

Bakri Video


I also believe that the documents and other materials seized at the time of bin Landen's death should be taken seriously, especially the already planned attack on the U.S. Rail Transportation System to celebrate their 9/11 slaughter. The plan was found in the captured documents. Al Qaeda would enjoy carrying them out, to memorialize bin Laden and to prove we are still vulnerable. The most amazing event over the tracking down and killing of bin Laden was that the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) maintained a safe house near the compound for months before the attack, unbeknownst to Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI. The IC was correct in not telling the ISI, for it is permeated with radical Muslim members. Read the article Pakistan's Intelligence Service Crossed The CIA.

Several months ago, one Jihadist website made real threats. It mentioned pending attacks by al Qaeda will be with "God's Might", and take place in the "heart of the land of non-belief, America, France, Denmark, other countries in Europe, and in other countries that have helped France". The site also mentioned that "the attacks will be strong, serious, alarming, earth-shattering, shocking and terrifying.” The website added that the attacks will be “group and lone-wolf operations, in addition to the use of booby-trapped vehicles.”
 
I wonder where, in America's heartland, the attacks will occur.

Robert Morton, Ed., Ed.S. is a member of the Association Of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) and writes the online spy novel series "Corey Pearson- CIA Spymaster in the Caribbean".  The views expressed on this site do not represent those of any organization he is a member of. Contact him on the Secure Contact Form